Worldsteel has released an update to its Short-Term Outlook (SRO) for 2023 and 2024. World Steel Association predicts that steel demand will grow by 1.8% in 2023, reaching 1,814.5 tons after contracting by 3.3% in 2022. In 2024, steel demand will further increase by 1.9% to 1,849.1 tons.
Talking about the outlook, the Chairman of the World Steel Association's Economic Committee said: "Steel demand has been affected by the high inflation and high interest rate environment. Taking into account the lagged effects of tight monetary policy, we expect steel demand to recover and growth in advanced economies is expected to be in 2024." slowdown in 2018. Emerging economies are expected to grow faster than developed economies, but performance continues to diverge, with Asia's emerging economies remaining resilient.
As the government intensifies construction efforts, China's infrastructure investment will continue to maintain its growth momentum in 2023, and the government may launch some additional infrastructure projects. Therefore, infrastructure investment is expected to remain moderately positive in 2023 and 2024. The growth momentum of the manufacturing industry has also weakened, but it will still maintain moderate growth in 2023. Automobile production is growing, home appliances are growing strongly, and demand for cold-rolled steel will continue to grow. As the external market deteriorates, manufacturing growth momentum may further weaken.
It is expected that steel demand will record a growth of 2.0% in 2023, supported by infrastructure investment and stabilization of the real estate industry. The outlook for 2024 is uncertain. However, under the assumption that the government will introduce additional measures to support the economy, steel demand in 2024 is likely to maintain the level of 2023. If the stimulus effect is weaker than expected, there are downside risks in both 2023 and 2024. Demand is expected to fall by 5.1% in 2023, following a 7.8% decline in 2022. Growth is expected to be 5.8% in 2024.
After falling by 0.6% in 2022, steel demand in emerging and developing economies other than China will grow by 4.1% and 4.8% in 2023 and 2024 respectively.
